Missouri
Department of Economics
Department of Labor and Industrial Relations
Division of Employment Security
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Welfare
and Work in the 1990's: Experiences in Six Cities, June 2004
Peter R. Mueser, Christopher T. King
(MANUSCRIPT IN PROGRESS)
WP 03-09
Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance
Peter R. Mueser,
Kenneth Troske &
Alexey Gorislavsky
This paper uses administrative data from Missouri to examine the
sensitivity of job training program impact estimates based on
alternative nonexperimental methods. In addition to simple
regression adjustment, we consider Mahalanobis distance matching and
a variety of methods using propensity score matching. In each case,
we consider estimates based on levels of post-program earnings as
well as difference-in-difference estimates based on comparison of
pre and post-program earnings. Specification tests suggest that the
difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of
program impact. We find that propensity score matching is generally
most effective, but the detailed implementation of the method is not
of critical importance. Our analyses demonstrate that existing data
available at the state level can be used to obtain useful estimates
of program impact.
WP 02-05
The Impact of Welfare Reform on Leaver Characteristics, Employment
and Recidivism
William J. Carrington,
Peter R. Mueser and
Kenneth R. Troske
Welfare reform has transformed the U.S.
cash assistance program for single parents and their children.
Although there remains substantial uncertainty about the importance
of reform in producing the subsequent decline in the welfare
caseload, even less is known about its impact on the experiences and
well being of former welfare recipients. The analysis here focuses
on the characteristics and employment of welfare recipients in the
state of Missouri over the period 1990-1999. We find that there has
been little change in the observable characteristics of those
entering, on, or leaving welfare, but there has been a dramatic
growth in the importance of employment for all these groups. We also
examine the dynamics of employment and welfare recidivism comparing
cohorts of leavers prior to and after welfare reform. We find that
after welfare reform leavers are much more likely to be working,
have higher total earnings, work for employers with similar
characteristics, and are less likely to return to welfare. These
results suggest that welfare reform has not materially harmed
welfare recipients.
Contact Information
Peter Mueser, Associate Professor
Department of Economics
University of Missouri-Columbia
118 Professional Building
909 University Avenue
Columbia, MO 65211
Phone: (573)882-6427
Fax: (573)882-2697
Email:
mueserp@missouri.edu |
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